Melissa 2025

AL132025 Advisory Number 2,

DISCLAIMER This is not official information or modeling, I’m just a dude on the internet. Please follow all guidance from NOAA and your local officials.

Windfield Map

gis_img

  • as of 2025-10-21T21:02:33+00:00
  • 100px per degree
  • GWAF 0.9
  • No Friction
  • default radius of maximum wind is 15kts

Data Files

Download Zip

File List:

  • melissa2025_100x100.csv
  • melissa2025_100x100.png
  • melissa2025_100x100.wld
  • melissa2025_100x100_2025-10-21T210200+0000.jpeg

Official Advisory Discussion

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 73.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

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