Fifteen 2024

AL152024 Advisory Number -1,

DISCLAIMER This is not official information or modeling, I’m just a dude on the internet. Please follow all guidance from NOAA and your local officials.

Windfield Map

gis_img

  • as of 2024-10-19T06:01:02+00:00
  • 100px per degree
  • GWAF 0.9
  • No Friction
  • default radius of maximum wind is 15kts

Data Files

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File List:

  • fifteen2024_100x100.csv
  • fifteen2024_100x100.png
  • fifteen2024_100x100.wld
  • fifteen2024_100x100_2024-10-19T060000+0000.jpeg

Official Advisory Discussion

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has become a tropical storm.
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was centered near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.4 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move inland along the coast of Belize later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is possible before Nadine makes landfall later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) north of the center. A WeatherFlow station at Xel-Ha Park near Tulum, Mexico, recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$ Forecaster Berg