Nine 2024

AL092024 Advisory Number 5,

DISCLAIMER This is not official information or modeling, I’m just a dude on the internet. Please follow all guidance from NOAA and your local officials.

Windfield Map

gis_img

  • as of 2024-09-24T15:02:04+00:00
  • 100px per degree
  • GWAF 0.9
  • No Friction
  • default radius of maximum wind is 15kts

Data Files

Download Zip

File List:

  • nine2024_100x100.csv
  • nine2024_100x100.png
  • nine2024_100x100.wld
  • nine2024_100x100_2024-09-24T150100+0000.jpeg

Official Advisory Discussion

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding likely, and isolated major river flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft Tampa Bay…5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$ Forecaster Berg