Six 2024

AL062024 Advisory Number 4,

DISCLAIMER This is not official information or modeling, I’m just a dude on the internet. Please follow all guidance from NOAA and your local officials.

Windfield Map

gis_img

  • as of 2024-09-09T15:02:20+00:00
  • 100px per degree
  • GWAF 0.9
  • No Friction
  • default radius of maximum wind is 15kts

Data Files

Download Zip

File List:

  • six2024_100x100.csv
  • six2024_100x100.png
  • six2024_100x100.wld
  • six2024_100x100_2024-09-09T150200+0000.jpeg

Official Advisory Discussion

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$ Forecaster Papin